Reds, Cards close big series in St. Louis

Baseball Betting Lines

09/05/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It is starting to appear as if the Cincinnati Reds are headed towards their first National League Central title since 1995.

Today, they try to put even more distance between themselves and the St. Louis Cardinals, as they go for a series win in the rubber match of their three-game series at Busch Stadium.

However, the Reds will be facing one of the best pitchers in baseball in righty Chris Carpenter, who has owned them over the course of his career, posting an 11-3 mark to go along with a 2.00 earned run average in 17 starts.

Carpenter, though, absorbed the loss on Tuesday in Houston, as the Astros reached him for three runs (two earned) and six hits in seven innings. He is 14-5 on the year with a 2.92 ERA, but has lost two of his last three decisions.

The Reds upped their division lead on the Cards to eight on Saturday, as Travis Wood turned in seven solid innings and hit his first career home run to lead Cincinnati to a 6-1 victory. Jonny Gomes had a two-run double in the first inning and Brandon Phillips made it a three-run margin in the second with an RBI single, as the Reds won for the seventh time in nine contests.

Wood (5-2) allowed an unearned run and five hits while fanning three and walking two for his fifth win in seven starts. It was his first career matchup against the Cardinals, who had won five in a row in the series.

Adam Wainwright (17-10) again failed in his bid to become the National League's first 18-game winner. In fact, the right-hander extended a career- high losing streak to four consecutive starts while St. Louis fell for the ninth time in 11 tries.

"I don't like losing one game, much less four in a row," Wainwright said. "I won't lose again."

Wainwright was charged with seven hits and five runs, only two of those earned, while fanning six and walking one over five innings. Matt Holliday had two hits and an RBI for the Cards, who opened the series Friday with a 3-2 win.

Hoping to pitch the Reds to a series win this afternoon will be righty Homer Bailey, who is 3-2 with a 4.92 ERA. Bailey did not get a decision on Monday against Milwaukee, as he allowed four runs in six innings of his team's 5-4 win.

Bailey did not get a decision the last time he faced the Cards and is just 1-3 in six starts against them with a 6.04 ERA.

The Cardinals have won 11 of 17 versus the Reds this year.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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